The Market Approaches a Top – What Can Be Expected?

Previously, I discussed reasons our economy would go through a major downturn.[1] My study of major bear markets[2] indicates that after a market top and drop, such as the one we have experienced since January 26, there is a second top coming within -2.6% and +2.9% of the first. This marks the beginning of a major bear market. Having arrived at the traditional topping range, what can we reasonably expect moving forward?

What follows is a summary of market behavior for every major bear market since 1929 that, like ours, was preceded by a correction. There are six of them starting in 1929, 1937, 1946, 1969, 2000, and 2007. S&P 500 data is used for the 1968, 2000, and 2007 bear markets. Dow Jones closing data[3] was used for all bear markets before that.

1929
The largest drops for this market were (trading days from the peak given in parentheses) 13.5%(12), 11.7%(13), 9.9%(17), 6.8%(20), and 6.3%(9). The 30-day average change was -1.07%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 15.1%. By day 30 it was 31.0%.

1937
The largest drops for this market were 5.0%(18), 4.5%(15), 4.3%(28), 4.1%(24), and 3.1%(20). The 30-day average change was -0.68%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 6.0%. By day 30 it was 19.1%.

1946
The largest drops for this market were 2.5%(15), 1.2%(13), 1.0%(30), 0.95%(14), and 0.77%(8). The 30-day average change was -0.13%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 0.9%. By day 30 it was 3.9%.

1968
The largest drops for this market were 1.4%(19), 0.92%(3), 0.90%(17), 0.89%(4), and 0.77%(18). The 30-day average change was -0.29%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 2.7%. By day 30 it was 8.4%.

2000
The largest drops for this market were 2.6%(28), 1.9%(24), 1.6%(27), 1.5%(19), and 1.4%(10). The 30-day average change was -0.33%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 5.0%. By day 30 it was 9.6%.

2007
The largest drops for this market were 2.9%(10), 2.6%(15), 2.5%(6), 1.8%(27), and 1.6%(29). The 30-day average change was -0.24%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 2.6%. By day 30 it was 7.3%.

All the bear markets declined gradually for the first week. In fact, it was rare to find a substantial drop during that first week. Except for 1969, none of the largest percentage drops took place during the first week and those were only 0.92% and 0.89%. Markets did begin to diverge during the second week with the 1929, 1937, and 2000 markets dropping 15.1%, 6.0%, and 5.0%, respectively, after 10 trading days.

Once the top was reached, there was no turning back. Instead, most markets had a steady decline. The only exception was the exceedingly volatile 1929 market, which declined 35% by the 13th day recovered 19% and subsequently resumed its decline. This is an important point for our market since the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 2801.90 March 13. This placed it within 2.5% of the January 26, 2018 high, just within the window for the second peak topping range. That would have placed that potential second peak historically early for a major bear market with a correction preamble. The fact 24 trading days later we are still waffling back and forth and in a recent uptrend is in stark contrast to previous major bear market profiles and argues against that being the second peak.

Note that, except for the 1929 market, which by that time was recovering, none of the markets had reached bear territory 30 trading days after the market peak. Technically, the 1937 market had dipped into bear territory days before it but was only sitting 19.1% below the peak by day 30. All the other markets were only approaching correction level territory.

Given that summary, it is likely that we will also experience a gradual decline with little damage the first week. In fact, with large loss days paling in comparison to those we saw in early January, it may well lull investors into a sense of complacency. Having gone through a long correction already, there will likely be little concern a month and a half later if the 30th trading day arrives with losses still in the single digits. That would be a mistake as the bear relentlessly creeps up on us.

[1] It’s Not Over, EzineArticles, April 9, 2018.
[2] The Coast Is Not Clear – Signs of an Impending Major Stock Market Crash, EzineArticles, February 20, 2018.
[3] Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) was used to gather the Down Jones closing data and in preparing this article.

What Internet Marketing Services Are Available?

Internet marketing is a pretty broad term – encapsulating a whole host of different techniques.

However, in short, Internet marketing services are ultimately all about ensuring that your business’ online presence is one that is effective – successfully converting website traffic into sales.

Acting as an umbrella term for a variety of disciplines, there are a number of Internet marketing services that you might find; here are just some of the most important ones, explained:

Search Engine Optimisation –

Search engine optimisation is one of the most commonly found Internet marketing services out there. In basic terms, SEO is the process of optimizing a website so that it will be indexed higher up on an SERP (search engine results page).

This can involve creating backlinks, editing content so that it is more search engine friendly or editing HTML coding to increase the relevance to the keyword that is ultimately going to improve your rank.

Email Marketing –

Email marketing is a direct example of Internet marketing services, utilising the medium of email to promote a brand’s message. Successful email marketing campaigns will see relationships with existing customers significantly enhanced – whilst at the same time leading to the acquisition of new customers.

Campaigns will also promote sales activity amongst that existing customer base, as well as advertising new products.

Pay Per Click Marketing –

Pay per click marketing is another of the most used Internet marketing services. Typically pay per click marketing is a form of Internet advertising that utilises adverts to drive traffic to a website.

Google is one of the most common platforms for pay per click adverts, with ads being displayed on the SERP – depending on the relevance of the ad’s keywords to the original search term.

Microsoft adCenter, Yahoo! Search Marketing and Google AdWords are the biggest of the PPC (pay per click) providers out there – operating via a system where a user bids on a keyword that is relevant to their company’s market or industry.

Social Media Marketing –

One of the fastest growing areas of Internet marketing, social media marketing is another of those Internet marketing services that has become increasingly vital for businesses looking to grow in stature.

This practice will see advertisers promote new companies, products or services using social media platforms. Whilst many of the techniques that are applied in traditional marketing are present, social media’s huge popularity on the Internet makes it possible to reach a much larger market than ever before.

Social media marketing will typically utilise eye-catching content to create a buzz on social networks – such as Facebook, Twitter and Foursquare – with the ultimate aim of getting that content shared, as a result spreading the message.

Search Analytics –

Internet marketing services will sometimes take data and analyse it to allow a greater understanding of a number of processes – search analytics is just that.

Search analytics involves taking statistics provided by search engines – such as search volume trends, advert spending and keyword monitoring – to improve the overall performance of search engine marketing and search engine optimisation campaigns.

Finding Internet Marketing Services Right for Your Business

The Internet is huge. No one will deny that, and the role it plays in business is becoming more and more important as well. It is no longer sufficient to do business offline, if you want to succeed in this technology driven new age, then you will have to do a bit of Internet marketing.

There are a number of Internet marketing services available to you, whether it is in the form of companies that specialise in it, or various standalone apps or tools that, if you have the time and knowledge to do so, can provide information on number of visitors, clicks, purchases and such forth.

If you are looking for Internet marketing services for your business then, what aspects of it should you particularly focus on?

Design will be more important than ever this year. It could be a wise idea therefore, to look for companies specialising in internet marketing services that also offer web development and design as part of the service.

Not only will they be able to offer typical SEO and PPC services, a vital part of any strategy, but they will also be able to offer services above and beyond others, by specifically tailoring your site for the purpose of attracting customers.

With a site tailored to not only your needs, but to attracting customers and getting them to make that all important purchase, you could soon start to see an increase in revenue from the online side of your business.

Social media will continue to offer internet marketing opportunities; however, it might be worth considering services that focus on the visual aspect of campaigns too. Photos, images and videos are a great way of drawing in customers to your site. Many studies suggest a picture or video is a lot more likely to stick in our memory than a bulk of text.

On the social media side of things, there are many tools and apps out there to best utilise social media platforms for your business. Whether it be Wildlife from Google or analytic programmes like SproutSocial. Do a little research into the advantages and disadvantages of these for your company.

You should also look for Internet marketing services that know a thing or two about the potential of mobile, if you find an Internet marketing firm which is not aware of mobiles potential, you definitely need to look elsewhere. Mobile is getting bigger than ever, with more people picking up smartphones, tablets and the like and surfing the web.

Many people will even surf the web on their phone or tablet whilst watching TV, so a product that generates an interest on the TV will quickly get them tapping away on their smart device to find it or similar products.

It is also important therefore to make sure that any marketing that you do online is cross transferable, whether it’s for desktop, tablet or smartphone. Look for Internet marketing services which offer you the best way of utilising all of them.

Content marketing is another vital component of a company offering top level Internet marketing services. Google is constantly punishing sites with substandard or copied content, so it is well worth your while to either invest in companies offering tailor made content services, or looking to do something yourself via company blogs and other such things.

Internet marketing services will be vital in anyone wanting to move or even consolidate themselves in the online world this year, so it is vital to get a grip on them.

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